Do you like the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night? Of course you don't. Nobody does.
As of Sunday morning, 89 percent of the bets and 91 percent of the money on the spread for Monday night's game was on the Denver Broncos. Those are huge numbers. It's a big reason the spread has moved from Denver -4.5 when it opened to the Broncos being favored by 6.5 at BetMGM.
This is when there might be profit in being on an island.
As hard as it might be to back Seattle, maybe all the bets on the Broncos have opened up an opportunity to take the ugly dog. Everyone thinks Russell Wilson will get revenge on his former team, but the Seahawks will be excited to face their old teammate. The Seattle crowd will be excited for the first game of the season. Everyone gets a little amped up to play on Monday night. Whatever Seattle's top level is this season, we'll probably see it Monday night. The Broncos not playing any starters in the preseason, with a new coach in Nathaniel Hackett, also might be in Seattle's favor. Denver could get off to a slow start.
Nobody likes the Seahawks this season, mostly because Wilson is gone and Seattle didn't do much to replace him. But Geno Smith filled in fine for an injured Wilson last season. He still has talented players around him, like DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Rashaad Penny.
It's possible the Seahawks are really bad this season and the Broncos roll them. That's the risk in taking any big underdog. But sportsbooks always end up winning, and sometimes there's a winning ticket to be had going against a favorite that has more than 90 percent of the money on it.
Here's a first look at the sports betting slate for Monday:
Any props for MNF?
Since it's a pretty light sports day elsewhere, might as well get some extra action on Broncos vs. Seahawks. I'll take the over of 13.5 carries for Broncos running back Javonte Williams. The Broncos have been a little vague about their plan in the backfield but I don't think Melvin Gordon III said the team plans for Williams to be the featured back just for comedy's sake. It's also possible the Broncos get a big lead early and run a lot after that. Over 57.5 rushing yards for Williams seems fine, too, but I think the safer bet is that he gets to 14 carries.
I'll also take the over of 28.5 yards for Broncos tight end Albert Okwuegbunam. He was a popular breakout pick, then everyone got scared off when he played in the preseason as the Broncos starters sat. I'm still confident Okwuegbunam will have a nice season and 29 yards isn't too much to ask.
MLB has nine games
A few MLB teams have off on a Monday, but there are still five games including one afternoon tilt between the Texas Rangers and Miami Marlins. That's not going to draw a lot of bets, but it's some daytime action. The Marlins are -135 favorites.
The best game of the day is the Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays. Both are comfortably in AL wild-card spots, though the Rays have an outside chance of catching the New York Yankees in the AL East. It doesn't really matter because everyone will be watching the NFL anyway.
What's the best bet?
Let's go with the Seahawks. It's the kind of pick that could look really dumb by the end of the first quarter but those are the types of NFL bets that often win.