Rishi Sunak facing near wipeout in London with Tories squeezed by Labour and Reform - new poll

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The Conservatives face close to wipeout in London at the general election, according to a new poll which showed them with just four seats left as they are hit by a Reform and Labour pincer movement.

The MRP poll by Ipsos puts Rishi Sunak’s party down to just four seats in the capital from 20: Orpington, Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, Romford, and Sutton and Cheam.

The first three of these Tory holds were classed by the pollster as “toss ups” as they are too close to call, with Labour possibly gaining them.

The most solid Conservative seat appears to be Sutton and Cheam, in south west London, though this could be affected by tactical voting.

The grim outlook for the Tories is down to them being down 20 points in the 20 seats they currently hold in the capital, Labour rising by 12 points, and Reform being on ten per cent.

The Liberal Democrats are down six points in these constituencies, which suggests some tactical voting may impact in these areas.

The Evening Standard has drawn up an interactive map which highlights the key battlegrounds in the capital on July 4, and many other seats.

The Ipsos poll showed that in the 20 current Tory seats, Labour would pick up 14 although four of these are also toss-ups with the Conservatives close behind in second place.

So if the Tories do show signs of recovery they could hold on to more of these constituencies; Bexleyheath and Crayford, Chingford and Woodford Green, Hornchurch and Upminster, and Old Bexley and Sidcup.

But on the current political situation, the Conservatives would be wiped out in Inner London, losing Cities of London and Westminster, Kensington and Bayswater, as well as Chelsea and Fulham.

They would also lose Hendon, Finchley and Golders Green, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Croydon South, Chipping Barnet and more.

The Lib-Dems would gain two, Wimbledon, though this is a knife-edge toss up with Labour and Tories not far behind, and Carshalton and Wallington.

Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said: “Ipsos’ new MRP, based on our gold standard online random probability KnowledgePanel, allows us to look at the patterns of support for the parties within each region, and London has its own story to tell.

“As in the rest of the country, the main finding is the fall in Conservative support across the capital, but even here we can see different patterns in different seats – which tend to work against Rishi Sunak’s party.

Wednesday’s Standard front page (Christian Adams/EveningStandard)
Wednesday’s Standard front page (Christian Adams/EveningStandard)

“The biggest fall in their vote share - down around 20 points on average – is in the seats they won in 2019, with signs of them being attacked on both flanks, with Reform UK averaging about 10 points and Labour up 12 (perhaps helped by the Lib Dems also falling a few points).

“Meanwhile Labour is estimated to hold on to most of their London heartlands relatively comfortably, but where Keir Starmer’s party is already strong we see a much smaller increase in their vote share, and even some falls – with the Greens showing some small signs of picking up the left-wing vote”.

In the 52 Labour-held seats in London, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is estimated to hold all of them relatively comfortably.

In these constituencies, the average vote share change for each party is the Conservatives down ten points, Reform up four points from the Brexit Party which stood in most of these seats in 2019 unlike in the Tory-held ones, Labour up three points, though down in some of them, Lib Dems down five points, and Greens up five points.

The Liberal Democrats are set to hold their three seats in south west London, Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park, and Twickenham.

But even in these seats, the Lib Dem vote is down on average by seven points, Labour is up 11 points, the Conservatives down 16 points, Reform up seven points, and Greens up three points.

Nationally, Labour is on course to win more than 450 seats and the biggest majority of any post-war government, according to the Ipsos poll of almost 20,000 people.

It estimated Labour would win 43 per cent of the vote and secure 453 seats, giving it a majority of 256 and reducing the Conservatives to just 115 seats.

That would be the Tories’ worst result ever, exceeding the previous record of 156 seats in 1906, and mean senior figures such as Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Johnny Mercer and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg losing their seats.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt faces a close battle in his Surrey constituency of Godalming and Ash, while the poll has cabinet ministers James Cleverly and Kemi Badenoch clinging on.