Trump’s Hopes for GOP Trifecta Hinge on Two Dozen US House Races
(Bloomberg) -- Control of the US House hung Friday on the outcomes of some two dozen races, with Republicans strongly favored to claim a trifecta following Donald Trump’s victory and party gains in the Senate.
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Vote counting could take another week or two, particularly in notoriously slow California, where Democrats want to flip several competitive seats. Oregon and Arizona also still have uncalled seats.
Republicans are already declared winners by the Associated Press in 211 House contests, compared to 199 for Democrats, which needed a net gain of four seats nationwide to claim the majority.
But Democrats hold some edge in more than half of the remaining races, prompting House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries to assert that his party still has a “clear path” to squeaking out the majority.
Almost all of the too-close-to-call contests are in districts now held by Republicans. A party needs at least 218 seats in the 435-member House to claim the majority.
Should Democrats fall short, any Republican majority would be tiny, perhaps coming down to the outcome of one or two races, Jeffries said Thursday in his interview with television show host Errol Louis.
Unified Control
In the Senate, Republicans now have a healthy majority of 53 seats, with counting ongoing in Arizona and Nevada. Those races, however, look favorable for Democrats.
Whatever the outcome in that chamber, the party will be short of the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster and must rely on Democratic backing to pass most legislation as Trump rushes to implement his agenda.
Meanwhile, fractious House Republicans are deeply divided over a number of issues, including Ukraine and federal spending priorities, complicating legislating in that chamber.
In the last two years, ultra-conservative lawmakers used their pivotal votes to stymie GOP leaders — and even removed Kevin McCarthy from the speakership.
House Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republicans announced plans to gather in Washington next week to elect party leaders and talk about next steps. There have been few signs Johnson’s that hold on the top House GOP spot is in jeopardy.
Trump will almost certainly need to flex some control over party mavericks, including the far-right House Freedom Caucus. Otherwise, “the Trump agenda could be in trouble,” Ross Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said Friday.
“A dysfunctional House is probably the principal impediment to the Trump agenda,” Baker said.
Still, unified control of Washington — particularly in the run-up to next year’s hotly anticipated tax debate — will make it far easier for Republicans to extend Trump’s 2017 law and deliver other campaign promises including deregulation and tighter immigration policies.
It also would take some oversight pressure off Trump, who was impeached twice by a Democratic-controlled House.
--With assistance from Steven T. Dennis.
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