Trump’s Plan to Slash Federal Jobs Puts Black Workers at Risk
(Bloomberg) -- President–elect Donald Trump’s plans to shrink the federal workforce would have disparate impacts on Black employment, while potentially eroding a key conduit to economic mobility that many Black families have relied on for generations.
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Some researchers say a substantial cutback could push the Black unemployment rate higher, particularly in areas like Washington, DC, where Black joblessness is among the highest in the country. Such an outcome would stand at odds with Trump’s campaign promises to protect Black workers’ jobs and provide them with more employment opportunities.
Trump has pledged to move 100,000 government jobs out of Washington, eliminate tens of thousands more and require federal employees to come back to the office — a policy that could be done via executive order shortly after he takes office next week. The makeup of federal employees means Black Americans would be disproportionately impacted by such downsizing.
About 378,000 Black Americans accounted for roughly 19% of the permanent federal workforce as of fiscal year 2022, the latest data available from the Office of Personnel Management. That was higher than Black Americans’ share of the overall US population. By contrast, White Americans’ 60% share of the federal workforce is smaller than their representation in the broader US.
“We’re talking about tens of thousands of Black workers who could lose their jobs,” said Michelle Holder, an associate professor of economics at John Jay College, City University of New York. “It would be pretty devastating to the Black community writ large, just in terms of loss of income, a loss of benefits, potentially loss of health insurance.”
The Trump team didn’t reply to messages seeking comment.
‘A Real Gateway’
Black Americans persistently have higher levels of unemployment and less accumulated wealth than other racial groups. At 6.1%, the Black unemployment rate is higher than the national rate of 4.1%, according to the government’s December jobs report. And Black households on average held the lowest amount of wealth among all racial groups in 2022, with the typical Black family holding six times less wealth compared with the average White family, according to Federal Reserve data.
Historically, government employment has provided stable work for many Black families. After the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was passed, Black Americans had more access to federal jobs, while private sector jobs remained more elusive, according to Dean Baker, a senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
“You had very blatant discrimination in the private sector. It becomes illegal in ‘64, but it doesn’t go away,” Baker said. “It was a real gateway to the middle class that you could have Blacks in decent paying jobs in the government sector when they were often closed off in the private sector.”
Federal jobs provide the opportunity for upward economic mobility because of the job security, access to retirement savings and other benefits that come along with them, said Christian Weller, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and a professor at the University of Massachusetts, Boston. The public sector also tends to have fewer layoffs and much higher levels of union participation — especially for Black workers when compared to the private sector.
And still today, it is difficult for Black Americans to obtain higher-paying positions outside the government. In the private sector, Black workers are overrepresented in front-line and entry-level jobs while being underrepresented in management positions relative to their overall share of the labor force, according to a 2021 analysis by McKinsey & Co.
Vows to Downsize
During his campaign, Trump promised to relocate thousands of government jobs and eliminate others, and he’s tasked Elon Musk to help dismantle the federal bureaucracy. Musk recently conceded it’d be difficult to shave $2 trillion from the nation’s spending — backtracking from a lofty target that he himself had floated.
Though it’s not clear exactly which jobs would be targeted, Trump has vowed to close the Department of Education, which held the largest share of Black federal employees among executive departments in 2022, according to a report from the Office of Personnel Management. The Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Treasury Department also hold a high proportion of Black employees.
Trump’s plan to cut federal jobs comes as the labor market is already gradually cooling. While the job market ended 2024 on a strong note, employers have scaled back hiring from the highs in the immediate recovery from the pandemic, and it’s taking longer for unemployed Americans to find work. And historically during downturns, minorities often face the largest impacts and are the first to be put out of work.
Holder and Weller said a reduction in the federal workforce could lead to higher Black unemployment in areas where government workers are concentrated. Washington, DC, has the most federal employees among states and territories, followed by California, Virginia, Maryland and Texas. DC and Maryland also have a large share of African Americans in their overall labor force.
Everett Kelley, national president of the American Federation of Government Employees — the largest union representing federal and DC government workers — said the proposed cuts would have a “devastating impact” on the Black community.
Kelley, who is Black, said he benefited from working a federal job for the Department of the Army for 30 years. Now 67, he said it allowed him to provide for his family and send his children to college.
“All those things wouldn’t have been possible had it not been for the federal government system that gave me a job based on my merits,” Kelley said.
--With assistance from Alex Tanzi.
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