Trump Risks Getting Tables Turned on Him With New 2024 Adversary
(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump, fresh off a convention where the Republican Party’s confidence in him was palpable, must now deal with a harsh reality: The 2024 race has gotten dramatically trickier to navigate with President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out.
Most Read from Bloomberg
Trump Risks Getting Tables Turned on Him With New 2024 Adversary
Harris Wins Soros Backing While Other Billionaire Donors Want an Open Contest
Joe Biden Bows to Democrats Who Wanted Him Out, Upending US Politics
The Money Mess Biden Is Leaving for Fellow Democrats: QuickTake
Trump’s aides weren’t surprised by the exit on Sunday, and his campaign had been developing contingency plans to take on Vice President Kamala Harris since a disastrous performance by Biden in a late-June debate sparked calls for the president to abandon his reelection campaign.
Those plans, though, have to address some fresh challenges. For months, 78-year-old Trump has attacked 81-year-old Biden for being too old to effectively serve another term. But 59-year-old Harris — whom Biden has endorsed — or virtually every other Democrat who could end up atop the ticket would deprive Trump of the argument, and might even be able to turn the tables on him.
The campaign also risks losing traction with some key constituencies, including young people and voters of color, where it had made inroads with some who now might be receptive to Harris or another Democrat. One of the strategies Trump allies plan to employ against Harris — to paint her as less likable personally — holds particular risk of alienating suburban women and Black voters.
And while Trump has kneecapped rivals in the past with cutting insults and demeaning nicknames, his attacks on women candidates have sometimes veered into sexist or racist territory that threatens to turn some voters off. He has referred to Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren as “Pocahontas,” and called his Republican primary challenger Nikki Haley “birdbrain.”
A 2019 ad from Harris’ earlier presidential bid rocketed around social media over the weekend, offering a preview of how she might put Trump on the defensive: The spot dubbed Harris “the anti-Trump,” contrasting her background as a prosecutor with claims that Trump is “owned by the big banks.”
Immigration Focus
Trump allies and advisers have shrugged off Harris, appraising her as a weaker candidate than Biden who is worse at one-on-one interactions with everyday voters.
The campaign believes it can beat Harris by playing up her leading role tackling immigration policy in the Biden administration. Trump’s co-campaign manager, Chris LaCivita, has called Harris the “border czar,” and has said he would love to use that message against her. That description of her was used repeatedly at the Republican National Convention, hinting that the party views it as a potent attack.
Trump himself had prepared to potentially run against Harris. He outlined his thoughts on a Harris candidacy in an interview with Bloomberg on July 9, just days before a lone gunman attempted to assassinate him at a rally in Pennsylvania.
“I don’t think it would make much difference,” he said by phone. “I see the same basic level of competence, and I don’t think it would make much difference. I would define her in a very similar manner that I define” Biden.
Several polls since the debate have shown Harris trailing Trump either nationally or in key states. Some political strategists, though, don’t see that as predictive of how things will stack up if she is officially anointed the Democratic nominee. The party’s convention is set to begin Aug. 19 in Chicago.
David Axelrod, the former Obama White House adviser, said Sunday that the “election changed in a dramatic way” when Biden decided to stand down. Trump is “a vulnerable candidate and can be beaten,” Axelrod said on CNN.
Listen to The Big Take on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Read the transcript.
Little Time
After Biden’s disastrous debate, Trump officials first made the argument that the incumbent had won nearly all of the Democratic delegates during the primary, and legally it was too late to shift them to another candidate.
That argument evolved over the week at the Republican National Convention. By Thursday, top officials like LaCivita publicly suggested that if Biden was too feeble to run for reelection, then he should not serve out the remainder of his term in the White House.
Now that Biden has made the decision, though, their focus is largely on figuring out how to best square off against his replacement. While the game plan is set for Harris, the plan for another potential Democrat is far murkier, said two people familiar with the campaign’s plans.
Two Trump advisers say the toughest presidential candidate to beat would be Michelle Obama, but there is no indication she would want to run and the former first lady has batted down any mention of a political career in the past.
The Democrats’ vice presidential nominee is also now a wild card. That complicates debate preparation for JD Vance, the Ohio senator just tapped as Donald Trump’s running mate.
And it has the potential to alter the ticket’s chances in key battleground states. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, an oft-mentioned name as a possible running mate for Harris, would complicate that state for the Republican, one Trump adviser says, but not push the swing state out of reach. Shapiro was quick to endorse Harris after Biden dropped out.
Trump allies and advisers privately think the sprint that Democrats are facing works in the GOP’s favor. The Democrats have very little time to coalesce behind a candidate and raise money before early voting starts in some states.
--With assistance from Tony Czuczka.
(Updates with details about Harris ad in the sixth paragraph.)
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
The $12,000 Harvard Class Celebrities Are Fighting to Get Into
The Zombie Mall King Doesn’t Want to Be a Bottom-Feeder Forever
Why the Nobel-Laureate Pioneer of Microfinance Risks Life in Jail
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
