Ukraine’s Allies Watch Its Push Into Russia for Clues to Endgame

Donato Paolo Mancini and Andrea Palasciano
·4-min read

(Bloomberg) -- Kyiv’s allies are largely withholding judgment over the Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory amid uncertainty over the ultimate goal of an operation that’s sought to redraw the map of the Kremlin’s 2 1/2-year war.

Most Read from Bloomberg

Several NATO allies have backed Ukraine’s decision to send troops into the western Kursk region — the first occupation of Russian soil since World War II — and called the operation a legitimate form of self-defense against Moscow’s war of aggression.

But some have voiced misgivings publicly and privately, citing the risk that the escalation in fighting could divert badly needed troops from a fragile front line and potentially sow division among Kyiv’s backers, according to Western officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto was the highest-level official in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization so far to openly criticize the move, which he called an escalation that would push a ceasefire “further and further away.”

But the comments drew a swift rebuke from his boss, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose government said Italy’s pursuit of a truce didn’t alter Rome’s full support of Kyiv. She’s now enforcing a strict muzzle on public statements on the conflict in an effort to prevent divisions in her governing coalition being exposed, according to people familiar with her thinking.

A dominant factor is the lack of clarity over the objectives of an offensive that caught Ukraine’s allies by surprise this month. One senior official said that, if President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s aim is to secure a bargaining chip, the timing of the assault may not play to his advantage.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government has been reserved in its reaction. A deputy government spokesman, Wolfgang Buechner, avoided weighing in on the merits of the attack, noting that it was “prepared apparently in great secrecy and without feedback.”

An assessment from Berlin on the use of hardware for the incursion — which included German-made Marder infantry-fighting vehicles — would be part of an “intensive dialog” with allies, Buechner said on Monday.

‘Trying to Learn More’

So far, Ukraine has touted the maneuver as a tactical victory. Since its troops stormed across the border on Aug. 6, Ukraine’s military says it’s seized more than 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of territory and accepted the surrender of the largest single group of Russian soldiers since the war began in February 2022.

Early reports show that some Russian units have been redirected from Ukraine to the Kursk area to help stymie the effort, according to US Defense Department spokeswoman Sabrina Singh.

The Pentagon spokeswoman said earlier that the incursion is consistent with Washington’s policy on Ukraine’s use of American-supplied weapons. On Thursday, she said the US was “still trying to learn more” about Ukraine’s objectives.

NATO allies consider it unlikely that Ukraine will be able to hold Russian territory, according to a Western official. Beyond Kursk, Ukrainian forces have launched attacks on energy facilities well inside Russian territory, while Kyiv has also overseen raids into Russia’s Belgorod region, next to Kursk, though with Russian anti-Kremlin volunteers.

Long-Range Weapons

Some of Kyiv’s strongest backing came from eastern European NATO members. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said this week that the incursion didn’t change Warsaw’s support “one iota.”

“We support Ukraine in a war that is a defensive war and there is nothing to discuss here,” Tusk said, brushing off concerns over Kyiv’s use of Western weaponry inside Russia. “I am aware and we all know what the risks are.”

The offensive again raised the issue of Ukrainian allies imposing restrictions on the use of their weapons in Russia. Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas called the Kursk operation a “good sign.”

“Another good sign would be permission to use long range capabilities and what you have for hitting the targets deeper in the enemy’s territory — and we will lobby for that,” Kasciunas said.

While the Baltic states and the UK have been among NATO members to push for allowing Kyiv to hit targets deep within Russia, others including the US and Germany have resisted such requests.

More broadly, the strike within Russia’s borders could change perceptions about Ukraine’s fighting force. Donald Jensen, senior advisor for Russia and Europe at the US Institute of Peace, said the sense that Ukraine was losing the war has now changed “in one breathtaking swoop.”

“We see that the Ukrainians are creative, they’re efficient, they’re well managed,” Jensen said. “They very skillfully picked out a weak place in the Russian deployment around the country and have exploited it.”

--With assistance from Courtney McBride, Natalia Drozdiak, Alberto Nardelli, Michael Nienaber and Natalia Ojewska.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Latest stories