Ukraine Plan Gains Steam as Biden Seeks to Keep Aid Flowing

(Bloomberg) -- Ukraine’s proposal for an endgame to Russia’s invasion gained some traction among NATO allies as Joe Biden made a plea to hold the line in supporting the war-battered country.

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The US president, who warned that Ukraine will confront a “very difficult winter,” sought to bolster Western support during a short visit to Berlin Friday, a day after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy outlined his “victory plan” at a European Union summit meeting.

The Ukrainian leader drew support from Western partners — including for a bid to secure an invitation to join NATO as potential leverage over the Kremlin — though divisions within the alliance remain, including between some key capitals, according to officials familiar with the reception to Kyiv’s framework.

“We cannot let up, we must sustain our support,” Biden said in the German capital. “In my view, we must keep going until Ukraine wins a just and durable peace consistent with the UN charter, until once again human dignity prevails.”

Looming over Biden’s visit is the US presidential election less than three weeks away that could return Donald Trump to office. That scenario could upend support for Ukraine after two and a half years of war as Russia makes grinding gains on the battlefield and Western governments struggling to maintain public backing.

Biden plans to use his presidential authority to keep aid flowing to Ukraine through to the end of his term in January, John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, told reporters in Berlin, adding that there was no pressure from allies on specific moves.

NATO officials have speculated on whether the US leader may make a bolder move on Ukraine after the Nov. 5 ballot regardless of who wins, according to people familiar with discussions within the alliance.

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told the Postimees newspaper late on Friday he thinks it’s possible Ukraine may get an invitation to join NATO soon — and that a window of opportunity exists between the US election and when the next president is sworn in on Jan. 20.

“Giving an invitation is a political message, it is not yet an entry,” Pevkur told the Tallinn-based daily.

German Resistance

On his first trip abroad since he withdrew from the presidential race in July, Biden met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The curtailed visit was to make up for a broader meeting of allies last week, a trip that was postponed due to Hurricane Milton.

Some of the people cautioned that discussions were at an early stage. Scholz remains opposed to any early NATO membership for Ukraine — and stands by his refusal to deliver long-range missiles to Kyiv, according to a senior official familiar with the chancellor’s thinking.

“We are supporting Ukraine as vigorously as possible,” Scholz said alongside Biden. “At the same time, we are ensuring that NATO does not become a party to the war, that this war does not turn into a much greater catastrophe.”

On his departure, Biden said there was “no consensus” on delivering long-range weapons for Kyiv to make deep strikes within Russian territory.

Still, a meeting of NATO defense ministers this week revealed greater openness to at least discussing an invitation to join the alliance, according to officials familiar with the discussions. But there was little scope of movement ahead of the Nov. 5 election in the US, they said.

Zelenskiy’s plan sets out Kyiv’s terms for an end to the war with Russia. It includes extending an invitation to join the alliance, the continued supply of advanced weapons and the ability to use them against military targets in Russia. Zelenskiy said sufficient support from Western allies could translate into an end to the war next year.

On Friday, the Ukrainian leader expressed confidence that Kyiv is closer to NATO accession than ever — and said a White House team will arrive in Kyiv soon to provide feedback on his plan, adding that his own team had made progress in talks with Biden officials.

‘We Almost Lost Each Other’

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte didn’t comment explicitly how the victory plan was received. Defense chiefs focused the discussion on how to maintain “massive” military aid to Kyiv, he said, adding that he “didn’t take a poll” among those gathered in Brussels.

But he reinforced a message that the long-term objective is to invite Ukraine into the military alliance. That is a red line for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has long denounced Ukraine’s NATO trajectory.

“We all know that Ukraine will become a member of NATO, so the question is when — and when the invitation will take place,” Rutte said on Friday.

The only declared holdout was Hungary, the lone NATO and EU member that has maintained stronger ties with the Kremlin and denounced military support for Kyiv. Prime Minister Viktor Orban, returning to Budapest from the EU summit, said Zelenskiy’s plan is bound to fail.

The EU’s aim should be to bring the war to a quick end via diplomacy in a way that would have Ukraine “lose as little territory as possible” in a settlement, the premier told state radio Friday, without elaborating. He repeated that Ukraine “can’t win” militarily.

Biden’s Berlin trip will be his last abroad before the election. Vice President Kamala Harris is locked in a close battle with Trump, who has signaled he may cut off aid to Ukraine and pledged a quick end to the war.

Biden received the country’s highest honor from President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who credited him with restoring transatlantic relations “overnight” on taking office in 2021.

“Just a handful of years ago, the distance grew so wide that we almost lost each other,” the German head-of-state said, a clear reference to Trump, who had a contentious relationship with Germany under then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.

--With assistance from Michael Nienaber, Daryna Krasnolutska and Zoltan Simon.

(Updates with Estonian defense minister from eighth paragraph.)

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