US election: Why a Donald Trump presidency could look quite different in 2025
During his first term as US President, Donald Trump faced a hidden 'resistance'. But things look very different for a potential second term in power.
"The election happened... and then there was radio silence".
That's how Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, the then deputy secretary of the US Department of Energy, remembered the aftermath of Donald Trump's surprise win in the 2016 presidential race.
The quote is from The Fifth Risk, a book by famed author Michael Lewis about the bungled and at times non-existent transition process across major federal departments when Trump took the White House.
The usual political appointees and teams assembled to take over key government functions at the executive level simply weren't organised.
"He didn't really expect to win," Dennis Altman, Emeritus Professor of Politics at LaTrobe University, told Yahoo News Australia this week.
"To some extent, he fell back on the people who were already a part of the system."
But things are expected to be very different if Trump prevails this week and returns to power in January.
This time around, "he knows who, in his eyes, are loyal to him. Loyal to him personally, not the US or the constitution," Prof Altman said.
"He's made it clear he's out for revenge. He's got a hit list."
In countless campaign events in the lead up to the election, Trump has railed against "the enemy from within" and vowed to use the government to go after them.
Fears there will be no Trump 'resistance' this time
In September 2018, less than two years into the first Trump presidency, the New York Times published a bombshell essay penned by an anonymous person from inside the White House. It detailed how those around Trump sometimes secretly worked against his wishes, and tried to "thwart parts of his agenda" and block his "worst inclinations".
"I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration," the piece was titled, with the identity of the author since being revealed as the then deputy chief of staff to the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.
But staff like him are long gone in Trump world.
Speaking on the Planet America 'extra' podcast on Friday, ABC host Chas Licciardello warned Washington will likely have a more unencumbered Trump should he return to the Oval Office.
"People are concerned that he [Trump] is becoming increasingly authoritarian as time has gone on, and the question is: Is he going to face any resistance?"
"He's going to staff himself with a whole bunch of 'yes men', which was not the case in the first term."
He also pointed to a number of key political and business figures "conspicuously" not endorsing Kamala Harris or very "quietly" donating to her campaign out of an apparent fear of retribution from a President Trump.
"We're already seeing an epidemic of gutlessness in the face of Trump and he hasn't even won the election yet. If the richest, most powerful people in the world are already tiptoeing around the guy before he is even elected, it's a scary sign for the rest of America as far as putting up resistance if Donald Trump goes into full authoritarian mode," Licciardello said.
"That's what people are scared about."
That sentiment was echoed by the New York Times tech writer Kevin Roose after the billionaire founder of Amazon and owner of the Washington Post, Jeff Bezos, stepped in to prevent the newspaper from printing an endorsement for Kamala Harris last week.
Speaking on the latest episode of the newspaper's Hard Fork podcast, he argued the "wave of CEOs sucking up to Trump" could ultimately backfire on them.
"I think what they are failing to include in their game theory is the scenario ... where they suck up to Trump, he wins, they get some benefit out of it for a while but down the line it becomes a liability for them. I think that is not something they are factoring into their calculus at all."
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With Congress up for grabs, Trump could enjoy 'extraordinary abilities'
The country could also see Trump's political whims unleashed if he wins the election and the Republicans take both chambers of Congress in the process.
Americans going to the polls on Tuesday (local time) will also be voting on seats for the House of Representatives and the Senate. Currently, thanks to the pledge of a few independents, the Democrats have the slimmest of majorities, and therefore control the Senate.
"If Trump does well that could ensure a Republican majority in the House and the Senate," Prof Altman told Yahoo. "In which case Trump would have extraordinary abilities to do all sorts of things.
"If that were to happen I think there would be jubilation in Moscow and Jerusalem because I think basically Trump would give carte blanche to [Russian president Vladimir] Putin and [Israeli leader Benjamin] Netanyahu" in their respective offensives in Ukraine and Gaza.
"In the short term, that is the most frightening outcome I can see of a Trump victory."
In terms of the Senate, it's a tough year for Democrats who are having to defend a number of difficult seats. "I don't think there's any way the Democrats can win the Senate, even if Harris wins the presidency," Professor Altman said. If the Democrats can take back the lower house, "it would at least slow him down".
Ahead of the official voting day, national polls have the candidates practically tied at a national level while the polling difference in key swing states are overwhelmingly within the margin of error in most reputable polls.
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