FTSE seen ending 2015 almost flat - Reuters Poll
By Atul Prakash
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's top share index is likely to end this year almost flat and gain just 6 percent from now until mid-2016, after most analysts in a Reuters poll slashed forecasts from just three months ago.
Strategists cited a poor outlook for miners against a backdrop of tumbling commodity prices and concerns about whether Britain will leave the European Union for the sharp climbdown.
A Reuters poll of more than 20 traders, fund managers and strategists taken in the past week gave a median forecast for the blue-chip FTSE 100 index to end 2015 at 6,500 points and rise to 6,700 points by the middle of 2016.
In late June, a poll had a median forecast for the FTSE 100 to end 2015 at 7,100 points and then set a new record high of 7,323 points by the middle of 2016. The benchmark index, which finished 2014 at 6,566.09 points, closed at 6,298.92 points on Monday, down about 4 percent so far this year.
Investors have sold stocks heavily in recent months on concerns about the pace of economic growth in China, the world's biggest metals consumer, and expectations -- now revised -- of a rise in U.S. interest rates this quarter or in early 2016.
Mining and energy stocks together have a weighting of more than 20 percent on the FTSE 100 index. The UK mining index has slumped about 35 percent this year as prices for metals and other commodities have plunged, while the oil and gas index is down around 15 percent.
British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Sunday his renegotiation of the country's ties with the European Union was "bloody hard work" and refused to rule out campaigning for a British exit in a referendum if other EU leaders failed to grant him the concessions he wants. Cameron has promised a vote on Britain's membership by the end of 2017.
"In the UK, the FTSE is likely to be under pressure from uncertainty on the Brexit question, with the referendum now certain to go ahead following the Conservative victory," said analysts at Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking.
"The markets could be nervous ahead of the Fed rate hike, but could be reassured on the health of the U.S. economy."
The poll also predicted that the FTSE 100 index would rise to 6,989 points by the end of 2016, an 11 percent rise from Monday's close.
(For other stories from the poll see)
(Additional reporting by Sudip Kar-Gupta in London and Alexandre Boksenbaum-Granier in Paris; Editing by Catherine Evans)
