Would you rather? Breaking down NFL Week 6 betting lines

·6-min read

The show goes on. Week 6 of the NFL season is underway and the never-ending drama surrounding the NFL is on full display. While we navigate leaked e-mails, let's try and break down some betting lines. We're taking a look at six NFL games from this weekend's slate and trying to talk our way into finding an edge. All lines are as of Friday afternoon and courtesy of BetMGM.

Would you rather take the 3.5-points with Detroit or New England?

The Detroit Lions are still looking for their first win after enduring another heartbreaker last weekend. They are 3.5-point home underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals. The New England Patriots survived a potential embarrassing loss to the Houston Texans last weekend. This week, they are 3.5-point home underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys. Which home dog are you backing?

Greg: Dallas -3.5 is such a trap, it may as well have “ACME” painted on the side. I can’t wait to see how much of the public money ends up on the Cowboys. Outside of a couple big broken plays, the Patriots defense has been playing well, allowing the fifth-lowest completion percentage and sixth-lowest yards per carry. The Cowboys offense is hitting on all cylinders, but can’t you see this being one of those games where afterwards you’re talking about what a genius Bill Belichick is?

It’s a shame how many big injuries Detroit has suffered because this team has some real grit. They have the heart of a lion, you might say. The Bengals are a bad matchup for them, though. Burrow throws a lot of deep balls and that’s Detroit’s biggest weakness on defense. I do think the Cincy D has been playing better than they actually are and that we’ll see some regression, but they should still be able to take care of business at Ford Field. Give me the Pats.

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 10: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates a score during the fourth quarter against the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium on October 10, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
The Cowboys are just 3.5-point favorites against the Patriots. Is it a trap? (Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

Pete: For me, this is more of a referendum of the teams that these teams are going up against rather than the teams involved in the question themselves. Cincinnati has gotten off to a 3-2 start, but they haven't really beaten anybody of note. They needed overtime to beat the Vikings, they struggled with the Steelers until Big Ben imploded and they needed a walk-off field goal against Jacksonville. 

On the other hand, I think Dallas is the real deal. I'm a big believer in Dak Prescott. Ezekiel Elliott looks to still be atop of his game. The defense has been much better than expected. I can't see Mac Jones keeping up with this offense. Therefore, I'm leaning towards taking the Lions here as I can see them getting their first win. 

Would you rather lay 5.5 points with Green Bay or Buffalo?

The Green Bay Packers are 5.5-point road favorites against the Chicago Bears this week. In Tennessee, the Buffalo Bills are giving 5.5-points to the Tennessee Titans. Which road favorite are you rolling with?

Greg: I actually like both of the dogs in these games, so this is a tough one. Remember a couple of weeks ago, when we were talking about how bad the Packers defense was against the Lions and Niners? Since then, they lost their lockdown corner when they had to put Jaire Alexander on injured reserve. The Bears, on the other hand, have only allowed 21 points over the last two weeks. I don’t expect them to totally shut down Aaron Rodgers, but they do lead the league in sacks and the Green Bay offensive line has been letting some pressure through. If Bill Lazor cooks up some schemes for Justin Fields to take advantage of the Packers’ shortcomings, Chicago could win this one. Maybe the most likely dog to win outright, however, is Tennessee. I know that sounds crazy after what the Bills did last Sunday night, but the Titans are getting key guys back and Mike Vrabel gets his team up for big primetime games. I’m taking the Packers.

Pete: I'm definitely leery of buying high on teams, which I think is exactly the case with Buffalo here. They've won their last four games in blowout fashion, scoring 156 points and outscoring their opponents by 115 points in that period. Their most recent performance was in a national primetime slot against the Chiefs. They find themselves in primetime again here. You know, Tennessee is getting Julio Jones back. A.J. Brown returned last week. I feel like we haven't seen the full potential of this offense. I think Tennessee is a contrarian play, so by process of elimination I'm going with the Packers as well. 

Would you rather back the Cleveland Browns or Baltimore Ravens as a home favorite?

When we picked the games to include in this column, the Browns and Ravens were both 3-point favorites at home. Line movement can be telling sometimes. Now, the Browns are 3.5-point favorites at home against the Cardinals while the Ravens are only a 2.5-point favorite at home against the Chargers. Does our original feeling support the line movement?

Greg: Okay, we talked about what a trap line the Dallas game is, but how about the 3-2 Browns being favored by more than a field goal against the undefeated Cardinals? Nick Chubb is out, but Kareem Hunt is one of the better running backs in the league. Arizona is giving up 139 rushing yards per game and the Browns are averaging 187.6. It’s going to be a literal field day for Hunt. Kyler Murray is dealing with an injured throwing arm and we saw how negatively that affected him last year. I think the Ravens lose straight-up to a better Chargers team, so I’m all over the Browns.

Pete: The Nick Chubb injury scares me, but only a little. Kareem Hunt is a top-ten running back in this league so while the Browns lose the impact and fresh legs provided by the dynamic 1-2 duo, they should still be able to run the ball in this game. Weather is supposed to be colder and windy, which definitely favors a rushing attack over a banged up quarterback. On the other side, Baltimore has been flirting with danger all season long and the Chargers aren't the Colts or Lions. I agree with both the line movement and Greg, Browns cover and Chargers win the game on the field. 

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