New Yorkers Flip to Hamptons to Vote Democrat in Tight Race
(Bloomberg) -- Jill Lafer has owned a home in the Hamptons for 40 years but never voted there.
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This year is different. The Democrat, a former chair of Planned Parenthood Federation of America, recently switched her registration from Manhattan to New York-1, a congressional district on the eastern end of Long Island that encompasses the playgrounds of Wall Street’s elite, bucolic villages and blue-collar towns.
The impetus for the switch is former CNN journalist John Avlon, who’s competing against Republican Nick LaLota, a first-term congressman who easily won the seat two years ago. But this time around the two parties are locked in a tight race — one of five in the state — that could decide which one controls the US House of Representatives in January.
“I’ve never voted out there, and this year because of that race I changed my registration and voted,” Lafer said by telephone from her Manhattan apartment, a day after sending in her absentee ballot.
She also urged her email list of about 350 people to do the same, hoping that if enough Manhattanites switch their vote, it could tip the race to Avlon.
Along the villages of the Hamptons and parts of the North Fork, Avlon signs dot the lawns in front of mansions and modest farmhouses. But head west to the middle of Long Island and along the North Shore and they give way to Donald Trump flags and LaLota banners. It’s a sign of the heightened enthusiasm and divisions in an election that’s attracted more than $6 million in ad spending.
The intensity is replicated across other parts of New York, including the Hudson Valley and upstate, where Republicans and Democrats are spending unprecedented amounts. The two sides and their backers have already burned through more than $130 million on ads for just five districts.
“The control of the House comes down to Long Island,” said Keith Davies, campaign manager for the Suffolk County Democrats. “We are leaving no stone unturned.”
Democrats sought an edge by urging second-home owners to switch their registrations from Manhattan. Republicans are hoping they get a boost from Trump.
MoveIndigo, an organization that focuses on moving Democratic voter registrations, has sought to register 13,000 people with second homes in NY-1 and, as of early October, had cajoled almost 2,000 people to relocate their registrations to other battleground districts in New York held by Republicans.
Trump, who held a rally in Madison Square Garden on Sunday following a September event on Long Island, has made a push for more Black and Hispanic voters, particularly men.
Greg Goldstein, Republican Committee chair in Sullivan County, in the Catskills, said he’s asking members to vote early in his 19th District, another key swing race.
“It’s going to be very close,” Goldstein said. “A ton of money is being poured into this race from outside New York state because it’s so important.”
Both parties are encouraging early voting — with almost 1.7 million ballots cast in the first five days, 24% more than in the same period in 2020, according to an initial tally by the state Board of Elections. New Yorkers reported unusually long lines from Chelsea in Manhattan to Hastings-on-Hudson in Westchester County.
Leaders from both parties have been stumping in New York in the final stretch. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson is campaigning with his candidates in suburban Rockland County and further north in the Catskills, while Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has been touring Hempstead on Long Island and is heading upstate to Binghamton.
The New York battles come just two years after Republicans surprisingly flipped a series of swing districts in the state, handing them slim control of the House of Representatives. It was a stinging defeat that came as voters blamed Democrats for the migrant crisis and rising crime rates that Republicans and some law enforcement officials claimed were linked to bail reform.
Two of the 10 priciest elections by ad spending nationally are in the Empire State, according to AdImpact data compiled by Bloomberg. Two years ago not a single congressional race in New York made the top 10.
Here are the key New York races:
Nowhere is the battle more expensive than the 19th District, which covers parts of the Hudson Valley and the Catskills. The race between Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro and Democrat Josh Riley has cost both parties and their affiliates a combined $44 million in ads, more than any other House election this year. Both Molinaro and Riley have appealed to voters by distancing themselves from some of their own parties’ stances on abortion and immigration, and accused one another of lying to the public in ubiquitous ads and a rancorous debate.
Another potentially swing district, the 17th, in the lower and mid-Hudson Valley, is also home to one of the top 10 ad spending races nationwide, with $33 million in commercials flooding the airwaves. Republican incumbent Mike Lawler, who won by less than a percentage point in 2022, was backed in spots placed during the Major League Baseball playoffs. His opponent, Democrat Mondaire Jones, who won that seat in 2020, has grappled with missteps like alienating some of his progressive base. The Cook Political Report recently shifted the race from a tossup to leaning Republican.
In the 4th District, on the South Shore of Long Island, GOP freshman Anthony D’Esposito faces Democrat Laura Gillen in a rematch. A former cop, D’Esposito fielded fierce attacks from Gillen after The New York Times reported that he gave taxpayer-funded jobs to both his fiancee’s daughter and another woman described as his lover. He denied the accusations and plastered banners of himself standing with Trump across Long Beach. Cook on Friday adjusted its prediction for the race from a tossup to leaning Democrat, and Gillen was ahead by 12 percentage points in a recent Newsday/Siena poll.
In the 22nd District, John Mannion, a former teacher from Syracuse, may be Democrats’ best hope of flipping a House seat. He’s running for the other New York Republican seat that Cook sees as leaning Democrat. A state senator with backing from the teachers’ union, he’s up against Republican Representative Brandon Williams, who won by a slim margin in 2022, before redistricting removed rural areas that strongly favored Trump and added the college town of Cortland.
Avlon’s chances on Long Island have been harder to predict. The Cook Report says the district will likely stay Republican, though the recent Siena poll showed Avlon just 3 points behind LaLota.
--With assistance from Gregory Korte, Laura Nahmias, Billy House and Anne Riley Moffat.
(Updates with change in Cook Report prediction for the 4th district.)
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