China's Pollution Won't Affect the World

Ken Ring

Real science is actual observation and not computer modelling. City smog, haze etc does not go above a few hundred feet, kept buoyant in daylight hours by heat from the ground.

You can look down on Auckland smog from the summit of Mt Atkinson in Titirangi.

The amount of CO2 in the air is always 38 parts in 100,000, and CO2 is not an impurity. Thousands of tons of water free of impurities are lifted each day from the oceans by evaporation.

A low pressure system can range hundreds of miles and drop rain over an area as vast as the Tasman Sea.

The amount of soot particles from industry and emissions from a city is infinitesimal, heavier than air and can not possibly contribute to weather. The weather always gets there first, then deals to the steam or fumes, not vice versa.

Water vapour rises because it is lighter and less dense. Look out of a Boeing window and you will see, like white candy floss, streaky ice crystal cirrus cloud above you at 50,000 feet. Yet it is where a wet weather system begins.

The ice gathers and gets heavier then descends to form rain clouds which drop as downpours.

CO2 comes out of volcanoes, ejected by volcanic blasts often 14kms into the air then kept aloft by thermals and upper-level turbulence. Being heavier than air the CO2 eventually drops back to the ocean where it dissolves.

To suggest soot changes weather patterns is to deny the enormity of the weather systems and to magnify out of all scientific proportion Man's tiny contribution.

There is no evidence that man-made pollution contributes more to soot levels in air than gets there through natural forest and bush fires and eruptions from volcanic sources.

The Taupo eruption and Pinatubo may have had slight momentary effect, but would have dissipated very rapidly. Temperature records from before, during and after the Pinatubo eruption show hardly any deviation.

Droplets of rain form around dust particles, which is why your windscreen needs cleaning after a shower. 100 years ago it was never imagined that soot might alter world weather when London, Paris, Chicago, Shanghai etc had pea-soup fogs.

Cities are now much cleaner than in the past, even in China despite coal widely burnt. Of course it is not pleasant to breathe it, and we can always do more to create cleaner habitats. But that would be costly.

With no production return no one will foot that bill.

In the debate about world weather we tend to forget that rain is quite local. In Wellington we do not get rain that has travelled from Nebraska. It comes from the harbour or nearby coasts.

The cycle of evaporation to rain is about 5-7 days. Average wind speeds are no greater than 15mph, or 2,500 miles per week, which is not even the width of China (3,123 miles).

In a week a low pressure system has all but dissipated. To slow it even more, rain-laden clouds become stationary.

Considering that after 7 days most atmospheric soot would have separated out, loads of soot could not travel beyond Chinese borders in appreciable amounts and with significant effect. Therefore any pollution by China is not a global problem

Emissions are mostly dirty steam. The 99% part that is water vapour joins the sky as extra cloud. The dirt in fuel that provides the blackish look falls to ground and is biodegradable.

It is not healthy to inhale it, but breathing any smoke is not good for you, especially the carcinogenic fumes from barbecued sausages, yet no one is saying sausages are wrecking the planet.

Given the vastness of the atmosphere and the high altitude at which weather begins, vs the tiny amount of city smog that only rises a few hundred feet by day then falls again to ground under its own weight at night, it is impossible that weather could ever be affected by emission impurities.

Remember too that NZ weather comes from thousands of miles across the ocean, either under the Great Australian Bight, up from the Southern Ocean's icy polar waters or down from the Coral Sea via the Queensland coast - all vast ocean areas with no factories or cars.

No matter how much impurity is put into the air, it is from the earth and has a natural source.

None comes in from outer space. No matter how polluting we are, and how much we mess our own environment, 99% of all species, including Man will perish through natural evolution long before the planet is affected.

The choice to live in cities, near emissions, is always ours.

We go to work and need to drive to get there. We need supermarkets for food and they need trucks and highways to keep shelves stocked. Pollution is inevitable.

The Chinese do realise that there is a pollution problem to be fixed.

But it is a local problem for them only, and only affects us if we choose to go there as tourists or as athletes.

Their dirty air may dismay sightseers but it will not destroy Planet Earth. Climate and the earth were here first, then we all came along. Climate and the earth will still be here when we are all gone.

For more writing from Ken Ring, visit [www.predictweather.com|www.predictweather.com]