Exxon Mobil Corporation's (NYSE:XOM) Stock Is Going Strong: Have Financials A Role To Play?

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 18% over the last three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Exxon Mobil's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Exxon Mobil

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Exxon Mobil is:

13% = US$24b ÷ US$176b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2021).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.13 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Exxon Mobil's Earnings Growth And 13% ROE

To start with, Exxon Mobil's ROE looks acceptable. Even when compared to the industry average of 17% the company's ROE looks quite decent. As you might expect, the 30% net income decline reported by Exxon Mobil is a bit of a surprise. Based on this, we feel that there might be other reasons which haven't been discussed so far in this article that could be hampering the company's growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

Furthermore, even when compared to the industry, which has been shrinking its earnings at a rate 9.7% in the same period, we found that Exxon Mobil's performance is pretty disappointing, as it suggests that the company has been shrunk its earnings at a rate faster than the industry.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is XOM worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether XOM is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Exxon Mobil Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Exxon Mobil's declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 76% (or a retention ratio of 24%). With only very little left to reinvest into the business, growth in earnings is far from likely.

In addition, Exxon Mobil has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 49% over the next three years. However, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much despite the lower expected payout ratio.

Conclusion

In total, it does look like Exxon Mobil has some positive aspects to its business. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return. Investors could have benefitted from the high ROE, had the company been reinvesting more of its earnings. As discussed earlier, the company is retaining a small portion of its profits. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.