Forest of Dean: Is this the West's safest Tory seat?

Wild boars
The wild boar is making a small comeback in England in the Forest of Dean [Getty Images]

Wild boars and vast woodland, a fascinating industrial past and a clock that never strikes 11 - there's not much that can change the character of the Forest of Dean.

Another thing about the Gloucestershire district that can not seem to be changed is the look of its Westminster seat.

The Forest's constituency is one of two in the South West which went unscathed after a boundary review - which saw the map of around 90% seats rejigged across .

Its MP, Conservative candidate Mark Harper, has held the seat since 2005 and saw his majority grow to 15,869 in 2019.

He is also one of the highest ranking MPs in Gloucestershire as the Transport Secretary, alongside Cheltenham MP and Justice Secretary Alex Chalk.

Across the West there are scores of seats that are forecasted to be under threat from swinging or having Conservative majorities severely damaged, but a question mark remains on the Forest of Dean.

Mr Harper has staved off competition for 17 years - so is the Forest of Dean the West's safest seat?

According to Dr Thom Oliver, senior lecturer of Politics at the University of the West of England, there are no constituency polls to rely on but the recent YouGov MRP suggests Labour will strongly contest the seat with the Conservatives.

Five Acres leisure centre site
The site of the planned Five Acres leisure centre [BBC]

In the Forest of Dean District Council local elections in May 2023, the Conservatives lost six of the seats they secured last time out in 2019, resulting in the Green Party to take on the administration.

And in the last Gloucestershire County Council election in 2021, the district saw a mixed picture with the Tories losing ground to the Green Party in Blakeney and Bream, and Sedbury, and the Liberal Democrats in Newent, whilst holding all their seats elsewhere.

This, Dr Oliver says, is caveated with the fact that voting behaviour between local and general elections can "differ significantly".

What are the big local issues?

House prices are typically cheaper in the Forest of Dean compared to other parts of Gloucestershire such as Cheltenham and the Cotswolds, but some residents are the most isolated in terms of access to services.

The River Wye, although it snakes in and out of English counties and Wales, generates a lot of campaigns that call on the Government to act on raw sewage being dumped including in the Forest of Dean.

Many in the Forest have also waited years for two hospitals to merge into what is now the recently opened Forest of Dean Community Hospital, in Cinderford, leaving some frustrated with the delays.

Likewise, campaigns were launched to keep the former hospitals - Lydney and Dilke - rather than see them go.

Lastly the major regeneration project Five Acres has faced multiple delays for many years to bring communities a new leisure centre and community facilities.

Who are the candidates?

Use the tool below to look up who is standing in your area in the General Election on 4 July.

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