After tying Sebastian Vettel’s consecutive wins record in the Dutch Grand Prix, it seems like a formality that Max Verstappen will become the sole record holder at Monza.
Verstappen enters the Italian Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET, ESPN2) as a -450 favorite to get his 10th straight win. The Monza track is incredibly well-suited to Red Bull’s car design and it’ll be a shock if anyone other than Verstappen or his teammate Sergio Perez (+800) wins the race.
Vettel became the F1 driver with the most consecutive wins in 2010 and 2011 when he won the final three races of the 2010 season and the first six races of 2011 while racing for Red Bull. And now it appears that Verstappen’s win streak could go on indefinitely given his dominance so far this season.
Verstappen is 138 points ahead of Perez and could conceivably clinch a third straight title with five or six races to go — especially if he keeps winning. Verstappen got his first win at Monza a season ago and led 34 of the race’s 53 laps. With Ferrari slower than it was a season ago and Mercedes’ car not as suited for tracks with lots of high-speed sections like Monza, it’ll take a catastrophe for Red Bull not to be in victory lane.
Here are some of the bets we like for the race weekend.
Carlos Sainz to finish in the top 10 (-275)
Sainz has the ninth-largest top-10 odds and is behind both McLaren drivers and barely ahead of Alex Alton. He feels like the best value in this category.
Max Verstappen to win FP1 (-175)
You should bet Verstappen to win the race itself as well. Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez are the No. 2 favorites to post the fastest lap in FP1 at +1000.
Both Ferrari drivers will score points (-165)
We’re doubling down on the Sainz bet and adding his teammate Charles Leclerc to the mix. While Ferrari won’t be nearly as fast as it was a season ago at its home race, it’ll be plenty fast enough for both drivers to be in the points.
Pole margin to be between 0.101-0.25 seconds (+175)
The combination of car and driver should make pole a formality on Saturday. Perez is the only driver that we think can keep it close, and even then, it won’t be that close.
Max Verstappen, Sergio Perez and Lando Norris to be the top three (+500)
Why not take a flier? The McLaren looks to be the second-fastest car behind the Red Bull and Norris has been a step ahead of Oscar Piastri.