Gunfire Greets Mozambican Opposition Leader Back From Exile
(Bloomberg) -- When Venâncio Mondlane started out as a political commentator, an almost 7-foot-tall television journalist was tasked with questioning him. More than two decades later, the two are locked in a standoff, with Mozambique’s future at stake.
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Mondlane, 51, has directed the biggest protests the southeast African nation has seen after official results showed he lost Oct. 9 presidential elections to ruling-party candidate Daniel Chapo, his one-time interviewer. The opposition leader, who returned home Thursday almost three months after fleeing, reiterated a readiness to talk. Soon after, police shot and killed three people as they dispersed thousands who had gone to meet him.
The unrest has left hundreds of people dead and injured, interrupted regional energy supplies, severed a key global trade route for chrome used to make stainless steel, and prompted a nascent supplier of graphite to Tesla Inc. to declare force majeure. It also risks further delays to a $20 billion natural-gas export project TotalEnergies SE is leading in northeast Mozambique.
A charismatic pastor, Mondlane left the southeast African nation saying he feared for his life. Large crowds had gathered in the streets near the airport in the capital, Maputo, before his return, as steady rain fell.
Mondlane, who disembarked from his flight wearing a dark suit and floral necklace and clutching a bible, said he was the president elected by the people.
“I’m here in flesh and bone to say that if you want to negotiate with me at a negotiating table, I’m here,” he said.
The nation’s $900 million bonds due 2031 rose 0.8% to 81.7 cents on the dollar, the highest level since Dec. 13.
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Less than an hour later, gunshots rang out as police dispersed the crowds gathered to hear him talk. At least three people died and six others sustained bullet wounds, said Wilker Dias, a director at local monitoring group Decide Platform.
Mondlane worked as a bank technician and established himself as a household name with his racy and theatrical public commentary. In 2009, he pulled a banana out of his jacket pocket on live television to signify Mozambique’s descent into a banana republic. He once presented an opposition politician who he said had made a grave mistake with a miniature coffin and flowers on air.
His ability to command demonstrations against what he calls a fraudulent election outcome across the gas-rich nation of almost 35 million people via live-stream broadcasts has earned him an international profile. The authorities have responded by switching off the internet and firing teargas and live bullets at protesters, fueling further unrest.
Almost 300 people have died so far, most of them shot by the police, according to Decide Platform. Mondlane puts the toll at more than 400, while the government hasn’t provided a figure.
Mondlane is known as VM7 — a nickname he says his young staff coined in 2018 because he’s “the Ronaldo of Mozambican politics” — a reference to Portuguese soccer player Cristiano Ronaldo who is known as CR7 and holds the record for the most goals scored in key tournaments for the sport. He has mainly targeted the youth and unemployed in a country that ranks among the world’s poorest and the median age is less than 18.
From setting up a studio to produce slick social-media videos, to rapping and dancing on the top of his campaign truck sporting a mini-Afro, Mondlane has kept millions of his compatriots glued to their phone screens with his live broadcasts.
“I deeply believe that I’ve got a mission to help the poor people to fight,” he said in a November phone interview from a location he didn’t disclose. “They call me the voice of the voiceless.”
Mondlane surprised many by how well he did in his first presidential election outing — results certified by the nation’s top electoral court showed he won 24% of the vote — and how long he’s been able to sustain the demonstrations.
Urban Warfare
His talk of a revolution through urban warfare to unseat the Frelimo party, which has held power since independence from Portugal in 1975, has also rattled the political establishment.
Mondlane has had a colorful political career. His father was a senior member of Frelimo and he became a member but quit to join the fledgling Democratic Movement of Mozambique in 2013.
He left that group in 2018, partly because he said it failed to submit his proposal that the government demand more revenue from a deal involving ExxonMobil Corp. to parliament. He then joined Renamo, the main opposition, becoming one of its lawmakers.
Mondlane unsuccessfully ran for mayor of Maputo in 2023 and led large protests against what he called a rigged outcome.
Presidential Run
Mondlane quit Renamo last year after it blocked him from standing as president and filed to run as an independent with the backing of a small party known as Podemos.
He has demanded that the government build 3 million houses and set up a $500 million youth-entrepreneurship fund within five years. It’s unclear where the money would come from, with debt servicing and public wages absorbing almost 90% of tax revenues. Even Roberto Tibana, an economist who helped write Mondlane’s election manifesto, is skeptical about the viability of his plans.
Mondlane’s return provides an opportunity to de-escalate tensions through in-person talks, said Nicolas Delaunay, an analyst at International Crisis Group.
“For this to happen, all parties should show restraint,” he said. “If the authorities don’t rein in the security forces, and if Mondlane continues to call for protests, there will be more deaths.”
Chapo said his experience of working with Mondlane in 2003 gives him insights into his opponent’s approach and should help guide dialogue after his Jan. 15 inauguration.
“In the future, I think he’ll contribute to the development of our country,” Chapo said in an interview last month. “My administration will focus on unity.”
--With assistance from Ana Monteiro and Alister Bull.
(Updates with report of more deaths in second paragraph.)
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