Labour on Track for Historic UK Majority, YouGov Model Shows

(Bloomberg) -- Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is heading for a landslide victory in the UK election with a parliamentary majority of 194 seats, according to modeling by pollster YouGov.

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The ruling Conservatives are on course to lose 225 of their seats, according to YouGov’s latest MRP poll — which have a larger than normal sample size — commissioned by Sky News and the Times. That would be their worst performance at a general election for the party since 1906, YouGov said.

It’s a significant blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who’s been unable to shift momentum in his favor since calling the election almost a fortnight ago, despite a policy blitz geared toward his core base.

Such a big majority would allow Labour leader Starmer to comfortably push through his planned reforms — including on green energy and housing — early on in his government. The two leaders will face off in the TV debate of the campaign on Tuesday.

Read more: Tories Fail to Dent Labour Polling Lead in Early UK Campaign

The MRP — or Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification technique — shows how national polling will be reflected by the number of seats each political party is on track to get on July 4. YouGov sampled over 50,000 voters.

--With assistance from Isabella Ward.

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