Mexico’s Sheinbaum Leads Vote Race by 19 Points, Poll Says

(Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s ruling party candidate for the presidency, Claudia Sheinbaum, is ahead of her main opposition rival Xochitl Galvez by 19 percentage points, according to a March poll.

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Respondents saying they will vote for Sheinbaum stood at 52%, holding her lead from a prior poll in December, while Galvez’s support increased to 33% from 30% before, according to a survey by the Grupo de Economistas y Asociados (GEA) and Investigaciones Sociales Aplicadas (ISA). Movimiento Ciudadano candidate Jorge Alvarez Maynez had 4% of support, while 12% of respondents were undecided.

The poll also measured the approval of outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, which declined to 51% from 55% in the previous survey. About 60% of respondents consider AMLO, as the president is known, will seek to influence the next administration’s decisions.

Mexico is likely to elect its first female president this year. Lopez Obrador, who remains broadly popular, is limited by law to a single six-year term.

Read More: In Sync With AMLO, Mexico Frontrunner Proposes Boosting Welfare

Other key points from the poll:

  • 55% of respondents said they are likely to vote in the June 2 election

  • 40% of Sheinbaum and Galvez voters said they could still change their minds on who to vote for

  • 57% believe the vote will be fair, while 60% think organized crime influence the 2024 elections

  • Security is considered the country’s main problem by 59% of participants

  • The poll surveyed 1,070 people in person at their homes between March 2-6 with a margin of error of +/- 3%

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