Tories face historic defeat as Boris Johnson 2019 voter coalition splits with Farage Reform surge - analysis
As Britain heads to the polls today all the signs are that the Conservatives are on the verge of a historic defeat.
Their vote share in opinion polls ranges from 16 per cent to 24 per cent, with seat projections from different pollsters ranging from 64 to 126.
Now seat projections come with ranges and margins of error meaning that very small shifts in votes could mean the party gains or loses dozens of seats quite easily. Regardless, things look bleak for the Conservatives.
How did we get here?
Fundamentally, Rishi Sunak’s decision to call a summer election has failed to turn the Conservatives’ fortunes around.
Ipsos polling for this paper today shows the Conservatives retaining less than half of those voting for the party in 2019, with that voter coalition fracturing in several directions.
On the one hand, the Conservative are losing a significant chunk of their 2019 vote to Reform UK.
Nigel Farage’s entry to this campaign has clearly been one of its most significant moments.
Ipsos polling shows that immigration is a key issue for 2019 Conservatives, with Farage and Reform UK able to exploit that in a way that has meant Rishi Sunak has been unable to win these voters back.
In fact, support for Reform UK has grown during the campaign and now stands at 15 per cent in our final poll.
On the other hand, the Conservatives are also losing votes directly to Labour.
These voters tend to be younger than the typically older men switching to Reform, prioritising the NHS, cost of living and economy over immigration as issues.
So the Conservatives are losing different types of people in different directions over different issues.
Tactical voting looks to be playing a significant role too – with 37 per cent of Lib Dems and almost one in four Labour supporters telling us they are voting for these parties to keep another party out.
All of which creates a perfect storm for the Conservatives.
Defeat seems inevitable but might they avoid some of the more doomsday scenarios?
Even now 28 per cent tell us they may still change their mind, and turnout could be low – though it is not obvious late movers will come to the Conservatives’ aid.
But in reality the Conservatives entered this campaign as an unpopular party, with an unpopular leader and they have not been able to shift opinions.
The public do not think they have delivered on the issues matter most to them and almost 8 in 10 think it is time for change. What that change looks like we will soon find out.
* Keiran Pedley is Director of Politics at Ipsos
